Episode Overview
In this episode of Value-Based Care Insights, host Daniel Marino sits down with Chris Collins, President and CEO of ECG Management Consultants, to reflect on the defining forces of 2025 and explore what healthcare leaders must be prepared for in 2026. Drawing on more than 25 years of advising health systems, academic medical centers, and physician enterprises nationwide, Chris offers perspective on emerging trends, strategic risks, and the leadership priorities that will matter most in the year ahead.
Together, they unpack how provider organizations can navigate regulatory uncertainty, harness innovation responsibly, and position themselves for long-term success in an increasingly complex healthcare landscape.
LISTEN TO THE EPISODE:
Daniel Marino:
Welcome to Value-Based Care Insights. I'm your host, Daniel Marino. Well, this is one of the episodes that I enjoy the most, and thinking through all of our episodes throughout the year. I always enjoy reflecting on the past year's activities and influences, that have occurred within our industry. And then thinking about what we need to pay attention to as we move into this next year, and obviously 2026, is going to be an interesting year for healthcare. So when we think about 2025, in my mind, there were a couple of really key influences. Obviously, artificial intelligence really ramped up. We saw a lot of activities, a lot of influences around business operations as well as clinical operations. We saw some new regulation that came down. Particularly around site of service changes, and of course, we can't forget the one big, beautiful bill with the new administration coming in, with Dr. Oz and Robert F. Kennedy Jr, we're only starting to kind of see some of the changes that they're going to put in place. And as we think about, you know, wrapping up for 2025 and heading into now 2026. All of these changes, as well as others, are going to continue to place pressures on, the healthcare community, on hospitals, on medical groups, and really create some new strategic challenges for many of our leaders.
Well, I'm very excited today to have a great guest, somebody who has been a extremely strong strategic advisor, partner to many hospitals, large health systems, academic medical groups around the country. Chris Collins is president and CEO of ECG Management Consultants, bringing over 25 years of experience in strategy and so forth to a lot of large systems around the country. Chris, welcome to the program.
Chris Collins:
Thanks for having me, Dan.
Daniel Marino:
So, Chris, when you think about 2025, what were some of your big takeaways?
Chris Collins:
Well, it went by quickly. I would say, and not to be a downer, I would say the word that comes to mind is unsettling.
Daniel Marino:
Yeah, that's great, yeah, you're right.
Chris Collins:
On many fronts. We could spin the wheel and say, you know, the government and policies, but also just in the trenches, in the health systems. It's just unsettling. I think that's the word that sums it up best.
Daniel Marino:
Yeah, I agree with you, and especially, I think, a lot of the health system leaders, they were just trying to figure out what it all means, right? Not only what it… how it's going to influence their organization, but what does it mean for them going forward? So when you think about 2026, what are the things that you're keeping, you know, you're keeping your eye on?
Chris Collins:
Well, AI is creeping into every conversation, and I think we're all gonna be fatigued by it by the end of 2026. How many times we say AI? And my biggest fear, when I listen to our clients, and the industry, is that if we don't play this right, it's gonna be a distraction more than a helper. And what I mean by that is, I think, if you look at healthcare, the providers, the services sector. I think we can all agree, we still have a lot of work to do on the fundamentals. And so, when this shiny new object comes along in AI, and it's coming up in every cocktail party, everyone's racing to say, well, how do I adopt it? How do I use it on the business front, on the clinical front? And I would say, pump the brakes.Because I think we still have a lot of work to do on the fundamentals. Maybe we're not even optimizing how we use basic analytics today before chat GPT got us all talking about AI, even though it's been around since the 70s.
Daniel Marino:
Yeah, I agree. You know, right before the holidays, I had a conversation with the CFO, and he brought up the same issue, right? It's the new shiny object, every vendor, every technology firm has artificial intelligence in their conversation and in their mantra, so to speak. And as we were talking about this, he brought up a good point, that the success, the adoption of artificial intelligence isn't really going to come down to, the functionality so much as it's going to come down to how we use it, right? The governance around it. So I think, getting back to your point, really thinking about what it means for the organization going forward, and how to best incorporate it into your processes, whether it's business processes or clinical processes is gonna be critical. If not, it's just going to be a major distraction for organizations.
Chris Collins:
Yeah, and you know, later on, I'm sure in this segment, we'll talk… we'll get into the payer space and value-based care, of course. What's ironic is I see a lot of parallels. So, AI, if you do your research, it goes back, it dates back in healthcare, in the 70s and 80s, Mass General Brigo. Others adopted it. Pitt adopted it. Really, truly. And so, in the payer space, we had managed care. And so we rebranded, and we get excited about value-based care and other alternative payments. And now AI, because it's come into everyone's home. We're now all talking about it again. And yes, it's much more advanced, but I think it could be a distraction a little bit. And I don't mean… I think it's here to stay. It's gonna be… it's already impacting healthcare, but I think we gotta be careful and be cautious.
Daniel Marino:
When you think about artificial intelligence, and again, I sort of put it into these two categories, right? Influences around business and business processes and operations, and then the clinical workflow, the influences around clinical outcomes. In your mind, is there an area that you feel that artificial intelligence in 2026 will make a big impact? Is it more on the clinical side, or do you think it's more on the business side, or is it still too early to tell?
Chris Collins:
You know, I think it's a two-part question, right? One would be, if you could wave a wand, where would you place its focus? And two would be. What do you think systems are going to use it for, mostly? And then a cautionary note is, remember, things are expensive, right? And these systems don't have a lot of extra dollars lying around. They're still trying to replace their fleets of equipment, they're trying to retain talent, and so I feel for them, because…they have very little room for error, right? So back to your question, I… I would hope that, where it's a natural fit in the space of…of imaging and pathology, I think that should continue. I think if you get too acute with it in the next 12 months, I think that's… I don't think it's gonna pay dividends. I think, back at the ranch, in terms of business operations, predictive analytics. revenue cycle, transcription, all those things, I think would be, you know, full throttle. Because you can gain efficiency, you can do really, really amazing analytics with it, but, you know, here's the thing. The prerequisite to all of this, before you get to enjoy talking about AI, you need to have data governance, you've got to scrub the data, it's got to have integrity, you've got to have the foundation, and that's where I think many of our clients and systems might miss that step and race too quickly to AI and not realize that AI is only as good as the data that it gobbles up.
Daniel Marino:
Yeah, you're absolutely right. I think, you know, organizations can't be wowed by the shiny object. They have to really figure out what that value is, and how to use it, and what it's going to mean for them. Let's shift to the next topic. We've seen, continued change in 2025 with shifts in site of service. I think some of the specialties that we continue to see impacted are certainly, orthopedics. You know, in a lot of the work we've done with clients, I mean close to 80, 85% of procedures are done on an outpatient basis. Cardiovascular service is another one that's really shifted from inpatient to outpatient. When you look into 2026, what are you seeing as the big impact, or how should hospitals start to really consider some of the changes that are going to impact their revenues related to site of service?
Chris Collins:
Well, look, we can tie it back to the previous topic. 2026, or go back to 2024, if you took all of your inpatient data and outpatient data, and zoomed out, and did some analysis and said, hypothetically, where could this care be provided? I think, most leaders would admit that a lot of it could be provided in an outpatient setting, right? Lower cost setting, everyone wins. Patient wins, system wins if they're careful with reimbursement. And so, I… we can say 2026, but the reality is more of this care needs to shift to an outpatient care setting. And yes, certain states, it's restricted in terms of CON for ASCs, etc, but just at a macro view. It's gotta go to outpatient care. We've got to stop going into the bowels of a hospital for routine care. Low acuity care, that can be done in an outpatient setting. Backfill it with high acuity. We're all short of beds. So, we all are in agreement, and now we just need to get it done. So, I hope this trend continues. It's obviously… you said orthopedics, that was probably the leader on the shift to ASCs. I think you'll see that continue. All the data is telling us that that's the case. So I think that would be… that's actually an example of returning to the fundamentals, right? Right, sure. Focusing on that, and not getting distracted by 3 meetings about AI.
Daniel Marino:
Yeah, about the other things that are occurring. If you're just tuning in, I'm Daniel Marino, you're listening to Value-Based Care Insights. I'm here today talking with Chris Collins, President and CEO of ECG, and we're talking about the trends that we're going to be faced with as we move into 2026. Chris, I want to build off of one thing that you had said, and it's around the ASCs. What we saw in 2025 is this continued move to establishing joint ventures. With independent providers, and in some cases, even the employed providers, as they've restructured, in a joint venture type of a role, hospitals with their physician partners. Are you seeing a lot of that continue? Is that… is that, as we move into this shift into more of the ambulatory arena with ASC, do you see that as a continued initiative that's really going to drive change?
Chris Collins:
No question, no question. I mean, the short story is many years ago, when ASC started popping up, and physicians would stand them up, hospitals, said, well, that's not…We're not gonna do that. We need to figure out how to prevent them from doing that. They're going across the street, they're taking our patients, etc. And then fast forward, you know, if you can't beat them, join them. And so, it's a good ending. Now they're teaming up. And they're establishing joint ventures. And guess what? Patients win, right? And so now you have systems working with physicians and physician leaders who are also business… very business savvy, standing up ASCs. So it's a good outcome, and it's going to continue, there's no question about it.
Daniel Marino:
Yeah, I agree with you. I do think it creates a bit of a challenge for some of the hospital leaders. They have to be, I think, open and willing to bring in physicians as their true partner on driving a lot of the business activities, but from what I've been able to see, and I think you captured this in your comments, if it's done well. It creates a lot of value for the patients, a lot of value for the communities, and frankly, you can really tie it into some of your payer negotiations.
Chris Collins:
No question, but it does be… these all begin with relationships. And again, I'm gonna keep saying it's on the list of fundamentals, is embrace physician leaders. Right? There should be no daylight between the hospital administrative teams and those physician leaders. I mean, that's where some of the best ideas are. If we're going to improve access. If we're gonna sustain or enhance quality of care, adopt AI, whatever it is, you're gonna need that partnership. And we're not there yet. You know, so we've got work to do.
Daniel Marino:
Yeah, you gotta… you gotta continue that relationship, you're absolutely right. Right, right. Let's build it. So… I'm gonna kind of move to another topic, and that's really around the payer community. We saw in 2025, it seems like COVID and the reimbursement really caught up with a lot of the payers. They… in a lot of the payer contracting and new negotiations, we saw the payers having to make some concessions and probably offering a little bit more increases than they have in previous years. And it's put some of the payers in a little bit of a predicament, you know, with some of the…reporting with UnitedHealthcare, and even with Cigna and Aetna, we saw the MLRs increase quite a bit. Where do you see the payer landscaping moving into 2026? Is it going to be a continued battle around fee-for-service? Do you feel like value-based care could maybe gain a little bit more speed? Any thoughts on where you see the payer activity occurring?
Chris Collins:
I think you're gonna see it go back to, kind of, pre-COVID, more around fee-for-service, back to the negotiations, and… and look, I… if you do a look back, and I know you're well-versed in this, Dan, if you go back and look at the data for 10 years. I think… I think we get, you know, a D- on adopting value-based care. And, we rebranded it. Go back to managed care of the 90s. Yes, it's different, different approach. But the reality is, it's still a fee-for-service dominated market, and I don't blame the payers, I don't blame the providers. We're skating around the biggest issue, which probably will never be solved, which is this antiquated reimbursement system. Whether it's DRGs or in the outpatient space, it's disconnected from cost. So all we're doing is we're doing all this patchwork, and we're trying to come up with risk models. And it's a huge administrative burden for these health systems and providers every time we roll out another program.
Daniel Marino:
Yeah.
Chris Collins:
We celebrate as a country that we're saving a few shekels, and we're making… I mean, we are putting a dent in it. The philosophy of value-based care, obviously, is something we all agree on. How we're doing it is very sluggish, and very slow, and no other sector would adopt it so slowly. I don't think we're getting to the root cause of it.
Daniel Marino:
Yeah, I agree. I think in order for us to really pick up the momentum. I think two things have to happen, and you touched on this. I think, one, we have to get a better idea of our costs, both internal costs and what we're spending on care, you know, the total cost of care. But I think the other key piece that's going to be important is we need to continue to focus on the outcomes and differentiate reimbursement based on the outcomes that we are providing to our patients. And if we can do that, that's where I really feel like value-based care will pick up some strong momentum. If we can't do that, it's going to be a continued fee-for-service game for now until who knows when.
Chris Collins:
Yeah, I agree. But when I say cost, and this is probably for another segment, I'm saying something more provocative, which is the Medicare fee schedule, you know, that was launched a long time ago. That's just been adjusted for inflation, so those…the reimbursement itself, and everything's indexed off of Medicare. They do not reflect the actual cost if you add up what the cost of care is to deliver.
Daniel Marino:
Oh, sure, yeah. Reimbursement isn't covering the cost, yeah.
Chris Collins:
Right, right, right. So that's broken. So then when we talk about cost or reimbursement, we're negotiating almost these false reimbursement rates. Yeah. And that's not going to be solved, you know, probably, maybe even in our lifetime, sadly. But, that's what I'm saying. I think that's the… that's the disappointing, point to all of this.
Daniel Marino:
Well, and I'll tell you, that couldn't be more true than within the Medicare Advantage segment. Because if you think about how Medicare Advantage is really structured, you know, again, the reimbursement isn't enough to even cover the cost, and then because of all of the challenges that some of the commercial carriers have placed on providers around managing denials and the appeal process, I mean, their costs have gone up, it's not gone down. So…when you think about that, where do you feel like Medicare Advantage is going to be in 2026?
Chris Collins:
Well, it's a tale of two stories. Medicare Advantage is unstoppable, right? I think most CEOs agree, it's here to stay, and it's putting… it's making a dent. But most are also not pleased with it, because the denials have been a struggle, the administrative burden and the administrative requirements are daunting. So I… I think it's going to slowly make progress. I think it's a step in the right direction. I hate to say it, I think it is. I just… I just fundamentally get frustrated when I think about…When you peel back the curtain, the actual reimbursement system, the backbone itself is entirely broken. I mean, we're… we're creating a new reimbursement system in Dubai, and you can learn from the failed system of the U.S, and I don't think… it's not politics. I mean, I don't think there's any U.S. president in our lifetime or Congress that'll have the backbone to kind of rebase the entire thing, which is what is needed.
Daniel Marino:
Yeah, yeah, I agree. So, one of the other challenges that we've seen in 2025, and actually it started shortly after COVID, is the challenges around patient access especially in the specialty areas, you know, it's… in some markets, I mean, it's, you know, 3 months to get an appointment to see an orthopedic surgeon, and so forth. Looking into 2026, do you see that changing at all? Do you see patient access improving?
Chris Collins:
It has to. It has to, because it's burning from both ends. Consumerism continues to seep in, and patients are not going to tolerate it, including younger patients, right? Young adults. That's why concierge medicine is increasing. So, it's gonna burn from that end. And then health systems are realizing that we have to do more with less, and they have excess capacity in pockets. So, yes, it depends on the specialty, but it's not… don't buy the cover story. It's not always the shortage of specialists. It's the mismanagement of capacity. So, if you look at a clinic's schedule, and you look at the rooms available by day of week, and you look at who's trying to get into the system, there's a disconnect, which takes you back to the fundamentals, right? Even with Excel, or Power BI, you can solve that, right? Yeah. You don't need AI to solve that.
Daniel Marino:
I agree.
Chris Collins:
I think, yeah, access has got to be… we've got to optimize our capacity management of a system and improve access for patients, everyone wins. And that will generate additional revenue for the system, etc. So, I think access improvement. Hopefully, it's not, you know, we don't, postpone it and wait for a shiny AI tool or platform to solve it for us. We have the tools in front of us right now to attack that issue.
Daniel Marino:
Yeah, I agree, and we're not going to solve access by recruiting. I mean, it's just not going to happen. There's not enough…physicians coming out of med school, and by the way, every health system in the country, every hospital in the country, everybody's competing for the same physicians, and you're just not going to solve it by recruiting. To your point, you have to really think about efficiency, you have to think about the technology there in order to drive it, and that's the only way we're really going to meet the needs of our patients.
Chris Collins:
Yeah, I agree, agree.
Daniel Marino:
So, given some of these issues that we see, and, you know, I feel like we've just barely kind of touched all of the issues that we're going to see in 2026. Thoughts on how, health system leaders, on how physician leaders, how should they focus on these issues? How do they, you know, maybe align it with their teams, or align it with their boards, or really just take these into consideration around their strategy moving into 2026? Thoughts?
Chris Collins:
Well, this will be a blanket statement, because I want to be careful. There are some systems that do it remarkably well. But… but, at a macro level. I still believe that the most underutilized asset in a health system are the physician leaders, and the relationship between those leaders and the C-suite. I really do. You could pick any issue, Dan, and we… and I'm not saying all the physicians, the physician leaders that represent the employed physicians or the very loyal, affiliated physicians, a lot of the solution sets live right there, working together to look at access, look at cost of care. And not just push it down to the physicians as if they're staff, right? If you're gonna make a change…
Daniel Marino:
Engage them, yes.
Chris Collins:
Yeah, engage them. Standardizing scheduling templates, some basic fundamental things that need to be done, everyone agrees. The way in which you do it, and building consensus, and coming up with the right model, and doing the right testing, and then allowing those physician leaders to get others on board, will pay huge dividends. And if you… if it's just more directed and implemented, by a bunch of suits like myself, it's not gonna go well.
Daniel Marino:
Yeah, you're absolutely right. I mean, when we think about these topics that we just talked about, the physician alignment was critical. It's a foundation part of all of it, right? You know, in terms of even you know, how we set up the joint ventures, how we align our support, and even drive some of the clinical change within artificial intelligence. It's all dependent on how well we align with our medical community, with our.
Chris Collins:
Right, and don't forget, we can tie all these together, because reimbursement drove physician employment of physicians by systems, right?
Daniel Marino:
Yeah.
Chris Collins:
Physicians didn't come running into the systems because I can't wait to be employed by health systems. It was because of reimbursement in the market. So now that they're there, they're inside the tent. Treat them like a partner. That's the, I think that's the special sauce going forward, and the systems that do it well have great outcomes, and they're very well run, and others are still a little hesitant, right?
Daniel Marino:
Yeah, it's a little challenge.
Chris Collins:
But they don't do it on a day-to-day basis.
Daniel Marino:
Well, thanks, Chris. This has been a, good conversation, and as I said, you know, I feel like we just scratched the surface. You know, your insight has just been, just fantastic. I really appreciate it. I'd love to have you back again. Maybe we can kind of take a deep dive in a couple of these topics, particularly around maybe the specialty service area. I'd love to get your thoughts on that.
Chris Collins:
That sounds great, thanks for having me.
Daniel Marino:
Well, thanks, Chris, I really appreciate it, and for our community and anyone tuning in, if you want to hear more about this topic or any of the trends that we're seeing as we move into 2026. Please connect with us on LuminaHP.com. You can see any of the articles, any of the information on our Insights page. But I want to thank everybody for tuning in. I wish everyone a very happy and healthy and prosperous 2026. Until our next Insight, I am Daniel Marino, bringing you 30 minutes of value to your day. Take care.